What are the CO2 Emissions Of China?

#CarbonCatchers #EcoEducation

China, also known as the people’s republic of #China, is the most populous country in the world with a population of 1.4 billion as of 2019. It is the third largest country in the world by land mass covering 9.6 million km^2. Since 1978 and the introduction of economic reforms, China’s economy has been one of the world’s fastest growing, with consistent annual growth rates of 6% or higher. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased from $150 billion in 1978 to $12.24 trillion in 2017, making it the world’s second largest economy based on nominal GDP. With China’s immense economic growth, there also came a concurrent increase in #carbon #emissions. This article will discuss this increase and will look at how China is working to reduce their overall emissions.

China produces the most #CO2 emissions of any country in the world - an average 10.15 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. This equates to over a quarter of global emissions annually (26%), and has contributed to 13% of global cumulative emissions to date (the USA has contributed the most to this at 25%; Ritchie and Roser, 2019). It is also the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world, with coal making up significant proportions of China’s energy mix. In 2016, this proportion was 64%, with a further 18.1% coming from another fossil fuel, crude oil (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2016). Despite being the largest emitter, China’s per capita emissions are similar to that of the European Union at 6.7 tonnes CO2/capita as of 2017 (EU-28 per capita emissions were 6.3 tonnes CO2/capita in 2017) (IEA Data Services, 2020). According to the climate action tracker, China’s efforts to reduce its emissions are highly insufficient, and are not consistent with keeping warming to a minimum of 2°C. In order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which China signed up to, China will have to reduce its coal power plant capacity by 40% in the next 10 years.

Figure 1: Coal Mine. Picture by Deon Hua.

China and Coal

China’s rapid economic growth was tied in with production and consumption of coal - meaning that as coal production increased, China’s economy grew. In recent years, however, there has been a decoupling of coal consumption and economic growth (Yuan, 2018). This led to a decrease in coal consumption in 2014 and 2015 from a relative peak in 2013. Unfortunately, there was a 2.3% increase in coal-related emissions in 2018 and a 4% increase in the first 6 months of 2019. It is unclear whether coal production is expected to increase or decrease in coming years - while the Chinese government has made efforts to move away from coal production, investment in coal in recent years has accelerated rapidly (Ren et al., 2019). Sources differ on predictions of coal use - some say it looks likely to increase, others say it will slowly decline, while the World Energy Model predicts it will increase until 2030, whereafter it will slowly decline (Tang et al., 2018). At first sight, with the lift of the construction ban on new coal plants in 2018, it looks likely that coal use will continue to play a large role in China’s energy mix for the foreseeable future. Yet, as we will see in next session, China is also a leader in #solar #energy. The price of solar energy is dropping fast, and is already cheaper than coal in many countries, even driving various coal companies to bankruptcy.

China also has a large part to play in the building of coal fired plants outside of China, with one quarter of all coal-fired plants currently under construction being financed in some way by Chinese institutions or companies (Stanway, 2019). Furthermore, as a result of the vast number of coal mines, China is also the world’s largest emitter of #methane. Compared with CO2, methane is 28 to 36 times more potent and so has a stronger #greenhouse effect, trapping more heat in the atmosphere and intensifying the effects of climate change. Despite strict government regulations, China has failed to reduce its methane emissions, and in fact saw an increase of 1.1 million tonnes a year between 2010 and 2015 (Miller et al., 2019).

China and renewable energy

Despite being the largest producer and #consumer of coal, paradoxically, China is also the largest developer and exporter of #renewable energy. While China has a share of 29% of global renewable energy patents, there is an imbalance with the amount of installed renewable energy in China itself. China is the largest producer of #photovoltaic solar panels, however, the installed solar capacity in China has only become significant in recent years. There is also a major disparity of installed renewable energy in regions across China, with large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai having the largest development of renewable energy, and many rural areas remaining completely reliant on coal and fossil fuels (Wang et al., 2020). In 2007, the Chinese government announced plans to increase the contribution of renewable energy to the country’s energy mix from 8% as of 2006 to 15% in 2020 (NDRC, 2007). China is certainly making progress in increasing their renewable energy. Total renewable energy capacity has increased from 401.7 billion #kilowatt hours in 2005 to a capacity of 1.1 trillion kilowatt hours in 2013 (Zhang et al., 2017). The main sources of renewable energy in China are #hydropower, then #wind power and then #solar power. Hydropower has grown significantly in the last few decades in China, and China has the largest installed and generation capacity for hydropower worldwide.

There is still long way to go, but it does look like China is on the right track with renewable energy.

Figure 2: Energy production, consumption and GDP in China from 1978 to 2014. The red line shows total energy consumption, the blue line shows GDP and the bars show energy production divided by energy source (coal, crude oil, natural gas and hydro-power, nuclear power and wind energy). Graph from Zhang et al., (2017). Solar power not included in the graph.

China and electric cars

While China seems committed to and leading the transition to solar energy, if brought to scale, there is a risk of destabilising the grid with this renewable yet intermittent source of energy. Enter the electric car that allows for the matching of renewable energy production with renewable energy consumption. Thanks to the electric car revolution the cost of Lithium ion batteries is dropping. This also allows for a new Lithium battery storage market to take off and replace polluting “peaker plants” at first, while eventually providing stability to the grid. Brought together with electric cars and battery storage, solar energy can scale and eventually become a dominant source of energy. This may very well be China’s masterplan, as the country has taken a strong commitment towards electric cars. About 1.2 million plug-in electric vehicles were sold and manufactured in China in 2018, more than three times the sales in the US. China has become the fastest and largest growing market for electric vehicles in the world. Some battery producing giants like CATL are completing this vision of a renewable future for China.

Figure 3: Kandi crush. Kandi is one among many electric car-sharing initiatives developed in China. Picture by Cenitt.

COVID-19 lockdown

With the coronavirus #pandemic, China shut down on January 23rd. Many have speculated as to how this affected their emissions. It was reported that CO2 emissions were reduced by 25% for the period of lockdown compared with the previous year. This equates to savings of over 900,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions or 6% of global emissions over the same period (Wang and Su, 2020). Certainly, the lockdown resulted in the drop in Nitrogen Dioxide emissions, a noxious greenhouse gas which quickly reduces air quality. Nitrogen dioxide is released from the burning of fuels such as #butane and #kerosene as well as from combustion engines in cars. Satellite images of China in mid-February show the nitrogen dioxide levels are 30% lower than average, significantly improving air quality of the area. This effect is a short term one, and emissions of nitrogen dioxide as well as other greenhouse gases are expected to increase again to normal levels following the lockdown (Wang and Su, 2020).

Figure 4: The satellite images show nitrogen dioxide concentrations in the air before and during lockdown in China as a result of COVID-19. White/blue represents low levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution, while yellow, orange and red represent medium to high levels of nitrogen dioxide. Image from NASA.

The Great Green Wall

One action China is taking to combat not just climate change but desertification (the spreading of desert into non-desert areas) is through the project the Great Green Wall. This project involves the planting of millions of trees designed to create an #ecological barrier preventing the spread of the Gobi desert across China. The goal is to have planted 100 million hectares of currently degraded land by 2050, covering roughly 42% of China’s land area (Moxley, 2010). While there has been a lot of debate surrounding the Great Green Wall, a study has shown that the Great Green Wall has significantly improved vegetation and reduced the intensity of dust and sand storms in areas where the program has been implemented (Tan and Li, 2015). While there is no doubting these positive impacts, others have highlighted that the initiative contains an underlying aggressive attitude to the environment, whereby it aims at dominating the environment rather than working with it (Jiang, 2016). There also appears to be issues with reporting - when scientists visited parts of the Great Green Wall, they found far less trees than was reported in government statistics. The project is certainly not perfect, but it is still a step in the right direction.

Conclusion

Despite strong criticism against China for their management of the #environment on their territory, China’s per capita consumption of CO2 is in the world’s average range. When it comes to CO2 emissions, China’s reputation of nº1 polluting country can be explained by the sheer size of its population.

It is also worth mentioning that in 2018, China accounted for 28 percent of global #manufacturing output, more than 10 percentage points ahead of the United States. This means that many countries are outsourcing not only their products but the CO2 emissions related to their manufacturing.

The future of China’s emissions remain uncertain: with China being the largest producer of both coal and renewable energy, China’s energy policies in the next few years will be instrumental in either keeping climate change at safe levels or far exceeding this goal.

Trends

• China’s per capita consumption of CO2 is continuing to increase and recently overtook the European Union in per capita emissions.
• Although coal consumption reduced in China over the years 2014, 2015 and 2016, 2018 and 2019 saw a rise in coal consumption once again and it is unclear as to whether this trend is expected to continue.
• China is both a leader in the Electric car revolution as well as in Solar energy.
• Air quality in China briefly dramatically increased as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown, however, it is likely to decrease to normal levels post-lockdown.

Calculations

• China is the largest emitter of CO2 globally, emitting an annual 10.15 billion tonnes of CO2 annually.
• As a result of COVID-19 lockdown in China earlier this year, emissions were reduced by over 900,000 tonnes of CO2.
• China aims to plant 400 million trees by 2050 as part of the Great Green Wall initiative.

References

IEA Data Services, 2020. CO2 emissions per capita, China (People's Republic of China and Hong Kong China) 1990-2017. Data and Statistics, accessed June 2020, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=CHINAREG&fuel=CO2%20emissions&indicator=CO2%20emissions%20per%20capita

Jiang, H., 2016. Taking the “Great Green Wall”: The science and policy discourse of desertification and its control in China. The End of Desertification?, 513-536.

Miller, S. M., Michalak, A. M., Detmers, R. G., Hasekamp, O. P., Bruhwiler, L. M. P., Schweitzke, S., 2019. China’s coal mine methane regulations have not curbed growing emissions. Nature Communications, 10, 303.

Moxley, M., 2010. China’s great green wall grows in climate fight. The Guardian, accessed June 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/sep/23/china-great-green-wall-climate.

National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2016. China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, accessed June 2020, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/indexeh.htm

NDRC, 2007. Medium and long term development plan for renewable energy.

Ren, M., Branstetter, L. G., Kovak, B. K., Armanios, D. E., Yuan, J., 2019. Why has China overinvested in coal power? The National Bureau of Economics, 25437.

Ritchie, H. and Roser, M., 2019. CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Our World in Data, accessed June 2020, https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Stanway, D., 2019. China firms funding coal plants offshore as domestic curbs bite: a study. Reuters, accessed June 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coal-idUSKCN1PG02P

Tan, M. and Li, X., 2015. Does the Great Green Wall effectively decrease dust storm intensity in China? A study based on NOAA NDVI and weather station data. Land Use Policy, 43, 42-47.

Tang, X., Jin, Y., McLellan, B. C., Wang, J., Li, S., 2018. China’s coal consumption declining - impermanent or permanent? Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 129, 307-313.

Wang, Q. and Su, M., 2020. A preliminary assessment of the impact of COVID-10 on environment - a case study of China. Science of the Total Environment, 728, 138915.

Wang, Y., Zhang, D., Ji, Q., Shi, X., 2020. Regional renewable energy development in China: a multidimensional assessment. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 124, 109797.

Yuan, J., 2018. The future of coal in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 129, 290-292.

Zhang, D., Wang, J., Lin, Y., Si, Y., Huang, C., Yang, J., Huang, B., Li, W., 2017. Present situation and future prospect of renewable energy in China. Renewable and sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 865-871.