#CarbonCatchers series
Brazil is the largest country in South America and the fifth-largest country by area in the world, covering 8.5 million km2. It is also the sixth-most populous country in the world with a population of 211 million. It is a newly industrialized country and has the ninth highest GDP globally. It provides much of the developed world with its food and has been the world’s largest producer of coffee for the last 150 years. Brazil is also considered an emerging economy and is in the transition phase of moving from a developing to a developed nation. It has a labour force of 107 million and is active in mining, agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors. The economy was undergoing significant growth until it entered a recession in 2014 as part of a major political corruption scandal. Brazil is famed for its corruption, with estimates that it costs the country $41 billion a year. Brazil is also famed for the #amazon rainforest which occupies a significant proportion of the country’s land mass.
Figure 1: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Photo by Agustín Diaz.
Emissions and energy mix
Brazil’s #emissions have been steadily icreasing over the last few decades. As of 2015, total annual CO2eq emissions reached 1229.25 million tonnes, equating to 2.5% of the global share of #CO2eq emissions. This puts Brazil at similar or higher levels than many developed countries, such as Japan (2.77%), Germany (1.89%), the UK (1.14%), and Canada (1.59%). In fact, Brazil is the 7th largest emitter of #greenhouse gases globally (Crippa et al., 2019). When this is put in the context of Brazil’s large population, Brazil emitted 5.97 tonnes CO2eq per capita in 2015. This puts Brazil 92nd in the world in terms of per capita emissions. There has been an increasing trend in emissions in Brazil since 1990. CO2eq emissions per capita have increased steadily from 4.37 tonnes in 1990 to 5.97 tonnes in 2015, showing a slight decrease from 6.11 tonnes per capita in 2014. Total CO2eq emissions have also been steadily increasing from 1990 figures of 652.76 million tonnes.
Brazil is the largest consumer of energy in South America. The largest component of Brazil’s energy mix comes from #hydroelectricity, accounting for more than 70% of the country’s electricity generation in 2018 (see figure 2 below). Brazil is one of the world’s largest producers of hydroelectricity, second only to China (Johnson, 2019). Most of its hydroelectric energy comes from the Itaipu dam, located on the Paraná river at the Brazil/Paraguay border. This plant is one of the largest of its kind worldwide with a capacity to generate 14GW. The first unit has been operational since 1984, and as of 2009, there are 20 operational units with a capacity of 700MW each (Power Technology, 2020). While the level of hydroelectric power generation in Brazil is admirable, it has not come without its issues. For example, the Munduruku indigenous group threatened ‘war’ with the Brazilian government in 2013 when they continued on with plans to build a dam on the Tapajós river in Pará without the tribes consent (Watts, 2013).
In recent years, Brazil has begun to invest in #solar and #wind energy and according to the ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico; Brazil’s National energy operator), the current installed capacity is 4.5GW and 17.2GW respectively. #Ethanol fuel also makes up an important component of Brazil’s energy mix. Brazil is the leading producer of ethanol fuel globally, making use of its large #sugarcane crop for its development. Fossil fuels do still make up a large part of Brazil’s energy, with oil, natural gas and coal being the primary contributors.
Figure 2: Change in electricity generation by fuel type in Brazil from 2000 to 2018. Source: US Energy Information Administration
The Brazilian Amazon and emissions
According to analysis published by Eurostat (2011), the forest cover of Brazil is 62% and accounts for 12.9% of the world’s total forest cover. However, the area of forest cover in Brazil is rapidly decreasing. Forest cover declined by 0.42% from 2005-2010. Forests are considered carbon sinks as they absorb more CO2 than they produce. Trees uptake CO2 via their #stomata and convert this into energy as glucose, producing oxygen in the process called #photosynthesis. This is done as the trees grow. It is estimated worldwide that there is a total carbon sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams (1015 g; Pg) of carbon per year (Pan et al., 2011). Of this, it is estimated the Amazon forest is responsible for the uptake of 0.45 - 0.65 Pg carbon per year, roughly a fifth of all carbon absorbed by forests worldwide. It is for this reason that the Amazon is often referred to as the “lungs of the planet” as it absorbs CO2 and produces O2. However, a study published in Nature has found that this rate of uptake is decreasing as more and more biomass is removed from the Amazon through #dieback and #deforestation (Brienen et al., 2015).
Figure 3: The Amazon rainforest in Brazil. Image taken from destination360.com.
How land use change has contributed to CO2 emissions
The most significant contributor to emissions in Brazil is land use change, unsustainable forestry and agricultural practices. Millions of hectares of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared to grow cash crops, such as soya beans, and for farming of cattle. The emissions from the #forest fires in the amazon in 2019 were equivalent to roughly 80% of Brazilian emissions in 2018 (1.939 billion tonnes CO2eq). It is estimated now that up to 20% of the Amazon rainforest releases more CO2 than it absorbs (Davidson, 2020). Should the current rate of #deforestation continue, it is likely that the Amazon rainforest will become a net contributor of carbon rather than a net sink.
Figure 4: The Arc of Deforestation
It is the Ministry of Environment in Brazil which oversees the protection of natural resources, such as the vast amazon rainforest. In 2004, there was a major shift in environmental legislation which led to an increased protection of areas of the rainforest and ultimately resulted in reducing deforestation rates from a peak of 27,000 km2 in 2004 to 5,000 km2 in 2012. The designation of these protected areas was done in a strategic fashion along the ‘arc of deforestation’ (see figure 4). Another key component to this reduction in deforestation was the use of satellite systems to monitor the rainforest. This allowed for quick identification of #deforestation hot-spots and law enforcers were able to apprehend offenders much more easily than before (Assuncao and Chiavari, 2015).
Figure 5: The image shows annual deforestation, protected areas and indigenous lands in Brazil in 2002 and in 2011. Figure taken from Assuncao and Chiavari, 2015.
Political will and reducing emissions
There is a significant amount of political instability in Brazil, and there were concerns that Brazil would pull out of the Paris Agreement. While the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, stated that he would not pull out of the agreement, levels of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon have more than doubled since he took office according to satellite data collected by the National Institute for Space Research. The agency showed how there was an 88% increase in deforestation in June 2019 compared with June 2018. Bolsonaro denied this was caused as a result of his presidency but instead blamed the increase on NGOs (Spektor, 2019). He accused environmental groups of purposely setting fires in the Amazon to embarrass his administration but did not provide any evidence to back up his claim (Watts, 2019).
Previously, Brazil pledged to reduce emissions by 37% based on 2005 levels by 2025. They also stated a further intent to reduce emissions by 43% of 2005 levels by 2030 (The Guardian, 2015). Brazil has also shown significant progress in the reduction of deforestation, reducing its emissions caused as a result of deforestation by 610 million tonnes in 2018, overachieving on its reduction target of 564 million tonnes by 2020 (Spring and Marcello, 2018). However, this progress has declined and in fact 2019 saw record breaking #deforestation and forest clearing fires take place. Brazil’s current targets have been labelled as ‘insufficient’, and according to the climate tracker website, if every government had the same targets as Brazil, we would be on track for a minimum of 3°C of warming (Climate Action Tracker, 2019).
Conclusion
By total emissions, Brazil is the 7th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. While the country does have strong ties with fossil fuels such as oil and coal, it also contains a large proportion of #renewable energy in its electricity mix, which is set to increase with more investment in solar and wind energy. The biggest problem facing Brazil and its action on climate change is deforestation of the Amazon rainforest which absorbs vast amounts of CO2 annually. If you want to help, consider sponsoring our planting project in Copaíba, Brazil. The aim of this project is to plant 20,000 trees in the Atlantic forest in southeastern Brazil, an area of forest possibly even more vulnerable than the Amazon rainforest.
Trends
Total CO2 emissions in Brazil were steadily increasing from the 1990s until it reached a peak in 2014. Emissions then began to decrease each year (IEA Data Services, 2020). However, the current administration is likely to undo a lot of the good work achieved in the last decade with energy emissions projected to increase by 15% by 2030. Should the destructive processes of ‘slash-and-burn’ agriculture be allowed to continue as it has, Brazil’s emissions look set to increase to dramatic levels.
Figure 6: Graph of CO2 emissions in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 (blue line) with projection to 2030 (red line). Data source: IEA Data Services, 2020.
Calculations
- As of 2015, total annual CO2eq emissions reached 1229.25 million tonnes, equating to 2.5% of the global share of #CO2eq emissions.
- The forest cover of Brazil is 62% and accounts for 12.9% of the world’s total forest cover.
- Forest cover declined by 0.42% from 2005-2010.
- If every government had the same targets as Brazil, we would be on track for a minimum of 3°C of warming
Keywords: #brazil #ForestCover #hydroelectricity #amazon #ForestFires #deforestation #EcoEducation
References:
Assuncao, J. and Chiavari, J., 2015. Towards efficient land use in Brazil. The New Climate Economy: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.
Brienen, R.J. W. et al., 2015. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature, 519, 344-348.
Climate Action Tracker, 2019. Country Summary: Brazil. Accessed March 2020 <https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/brazil/>
Crippa, M., Oreggioni, G., Guizzardi, D., Muntean, M., Schaaf, E., Lo Vullo, E., Solazzo, E., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Olivier, J.G.J., Vignati, E., Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries - 2019 Report, EUR 29849 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019, ISBN 978-92-76-11100-9, doi:10.2760/687800, JRC117610.
Davidson, J., 2020. Amazon deforestation is causing 20% of forests to release more carbon than they absorb. EcoWatch, accessed March 2020 <https://www.ecowatch.com/amazon-deforestation-carb...>
Eurostat, 2011. Forestry in the EU and the World: A statistical portrait. Eurostat statistical books, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
IEA Data Services, 2020. Total CO2 emissions Brazil 1990-2017. Accessed March 2020 <https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=BR...>
Johnson, S., 2019. Brazil plans to add more solar to its hydro-dominated electricity generation mix. US Energy Information Administration, Accessed March 2020 <https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39...>
Pan, Y. et al., 2011. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science, 333 (6045), 988-993.
Power Technology, 2020. The Itaipu Hydroelectric Dam Project, Brazil. Accessed March 2020 <https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-h...>
Spektor, B., 2019. Amazon deforestation shot up by 278% last month, satellite data show. Live Science, accessed March 2020 <https://www.livescience.com/66120-amazon-rainfores...>
Spring, J. and Marcello, M. C., 2018. Brazil cuts deforestation emissions below 2020 targets. Reuters, Accessed March 2020 <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-climate/...>
The Guardian, 2015. Brazil pledges to cut carbon emissions 37% by 2025. Accessed March 2020 <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/2...>
Watts, J., 2013. Amazon tribe threatens to declare war amid row over Brazilian dam project. The Guardian, accessed March 2020 <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/apr/0...>
Watts, J., 2019. Jair Bolsonaro claims NGOs behind Amazon forest fire surge - but provides no evidence. The Guardian, Accessed March 2020. <https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/w...>
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